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Sue Ann Sim

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Market Insights

New York Colour

Published April 22, 2024
1 mins read

Article by Sue Ann Sim

  • BTC’s 4th halving was completed on 19 Apr on Saturday Asia morning. Spot price inched higher over the weekend and not much else.
  • The previous three halvings saw spot price move higher exponentially only 50-100 days after the actual halving day. If this pattern is repeated this time, BTC bulls still have a few weeks to build a larger long position.
  • What we could see in the short-term is a short-squeeze led by Altcoins and Memecoins which have seen persistent negative funding , with some as deep as -100%.
  • With ETH risk reversals normalising to above -4%, improving speculative sentiment could see short covering and a resumption of leveraged longs.

Trade Ideas:
(spot ref: 66k)

1. Structurally bullish BTC
We continue to see consistent large buying of BTC calls expiring at the end of the year and beyond. We think ERKOs provide good risk-reward if you have a longer-term bullish view.

ERKO 27 Dec 2024 75/150k
Max payout: 10.52x
Price: 7130 USD per BTC

ERKO 28 Mar 2025 150/250k
Max payout: 40x
Price: 2500 USD per BTC

2. Build BTC longs in the coming weeks by buying BTC at a large discount (55k level) before the typical post-halving exponential run higher.

BTC Accumulator
Expiry: 6SEP24 (20 weeks)
Strike: 55,000 (-19.70%)
Upper Barrier: 80,000 (+10.61%)

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