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Sue Ann Sim
Sue Ann Sim

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Market Insights

London & New York Colour

Published May 1, 2024
1 mins read

Article by Sue Ann Sim

  • The US dollar is on a rampaging rally against everything.
  • USDJPY breached a historic 160 level on Monday, forcing the Bank of Japan to intervene. US 2-year yields broke above 5% on the back of resurgent inflation fears and the market is very nervous about 10-year yields breaking above 5% as well.
  • Crypto markets were not spared with BTC trading to 56.5k lows and ETH to 2814 lows. Altcoins fared significantly worse.
  • There are two important events happening today that could either exacerbate this bearish move or reverse it.
  • Firstly, if Powell is dovish at FOMC, it could provide a bullish flip.
  • Secondly, if the QRA (Quarterly Refunding Announcement) sees heavy issuances in US bills (front-end) instead of the 10-year (back-end), it would reduce fears of longer-term rates spiking and might put some brakes on the USD rally.

Trade Idea:
If you think we’ve already seen the lows in BTC and ETH and prices will stabilise or rally from here, the CFCC (Conditional Fixed Coupon Convertible) provides very strong returns with downside protection.
(spot ref: BTC 57.5k, ETH 2,910)

BTC CFCC (26-JUL 12 weeks)
Coupon payment: 41% pa every Friday as long as spot price is above 55k (Threshold level).
Threshold: 55k
Strike: 50k
Protection: 45k
At expiry, only if spot price is below 45k, the USD deployed is converted to BTC at 50k price.

ETH CFCC (26-JUL 12 weeks)
Coupon payment: 45% pa every Friday as long as spot price is above 2,800 (Threshold level).
Threshold: 2,800
Strike: 2,500
Protection: 2,200
At expiry, only if spot price is below 2,200, the USD deployed is converted to ETH at 2,500 price.

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