Article by

Sue Ann Sim
Sue Ann Sim

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Market Insights

New York Colour

Published April 10, 2024
1 mins read

Article by Sue Ann Sim

  • BTC has dipped back below 69k and ETH below 3500 again on the back of a relatively large $223.8m outflow for BTC spot ETFs on Monday.
  • The desk continues to see buying of long-dated BTC calls, in particular, sizeable daily buying of Mar 2025 200k Calls.
  • We are also starting to see the market position for the ETH spot ETF (upcoming deadline of 23-May) and with signs similar to what we saw ahead of BTC spot ETF approval:
  1. Call buyers and elevated perp funding and forwards dragging spot higher and causing the Grayscale spread to increase to -24% (similar to the GBTC discount in October)
  2. Increase in long positioning on CME ETH futures
  • However, the SEC is not clustering ETH spot ETF deadlines which is what it did ahead of BTC spot ETF approval.
  • Does this mean the likelihood of ETH spot ETF approval is lower? Either way, we expect some additional volatility in May. We’ve sold Apr vol vs. bought May vol at a 2% spread (it was a 10% spread for BTC between the pre-and-post spot ETF expiries).

Trade Idea: BTC is still a buy the dip for us so we prefer Accumulators For a 20 week deployment, you are able to buy BTC at 56,850 (17% discount) for every week that BTC trades below 80,150. (spot ref: 68,500)

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