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Sue Ann Sim

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Market Insights

London & New York Colour

Published May 9, 2024
1 mins read

Article by Sue Ann Sim

  • The US dollar is inching higher again, placing a cap on risk assets including crypto.
  • The Swedish Riksbank cut interest rates from 4.00% to 3.75%. This follows the Swiss National Bank (SNB) which cut earlier in March and the ECB is also expected to cut in June.
  • The USD is rallying as the market prices out expectations that other central banks will wait for the Fed to cut before following, especially as economic performance and inflation levels continue to diverge between the US and the rest of the world.
  • Markets are currently pricing in two Fed cuts this year, with the first cut only expected in Sep.
  • To make things worse, BTC spot ETF flows have flattened out again after strong inflows from last Friday and the recent Monday.
  • The desk is not seeing any bearish panic but more trades that express a lower volatility, consolidation view.

Trade Ideas:
We remain structurally positive BTC into the end of the year and on this dip we like topside strategies that provide the best risk-reward.

The following uses the enhanced upfront yield from ZCC to buy double the topside exposure from ERKO calls. Unleveraged with protection on the downside while ramping up returns on the topside. (spot ref: 61k)

BTC ZCC + ERKO Call (2x)
Cost: ZERO
Max payout: $80,000 per BTC notional

Expiry: 27-Dec
Put Strike: 55,000
Protection Level: 45,000
Call Strike: 70,000
Call Knockout: 110,000
Collateral requirement: $55k per BTC notional

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