Market Insights
Article by Elisha
This week, the market experienced a significant rally in risk assets, primarily driven by the PBoC’s stimulus aimed at revitalizing the Chinese economy. This followed the Fed’s announcement of a 50bps rate cut, which has set a positive tone for global markets.
In Japan, political developments have also shifted market sentiment. Ishiba, a vocal critic of the BoJ’s ultra-loose monetary policies, is poised to become the new PM. This has shifted market expectations away from BoJ’s low interest rate stance, adding another layer of complexity to the financial landscape.
The Core PCE index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, reported a softer-than-expected increase of 2.6% YoY (forecasted 2.7% YoY). This has increased the market’s anticipation of a potential 50bps cut at the next FOMC meeting, with probabilities now at 53% for 50bps versus 47% for 25bps. Following this data, the DOW closed at a record high, climbing 137.89 points.
As we head into next week, the key focus will be on upcoming labour market indicators, including JOLTs, ADP, and the U.S unemployment rate. Strong performance in these metrics could bolster the case for a 50bps cut in November, further propelling risk assets.
On the crypto front, BTC ETF saw substantial inflows throughout the week, closing Friday with $494.4m inflows. Despite lacklustre flows into ETH ETF as of late, we observed ETH ETF picking up and closing Friday with $58.7m inflows. BTC has reclaimed the 66k mark, while ETH is trading around 2.7k. Implied volatility for ETH remains elevated (by 8%) compared to BTC, while ETH/BTC remains steady above the 0.04 mark.
While the stars are aligned for risk assets to rally heading into Q4, we favor topside structures that offer high payouts as we remain bullish heading into the next quarter.
Election Ticket
Yesterday’s Fed meeting minutes revealed a less dovish tone, bringing the Fed’s implied victory over inflation under question. Combined with last Friday’s strong payroll data,
Chinese stocks continue to move lower today after yesterday’s disappointing press conference from state planners. The China A50 Index is down another 7% today and
QCP adopts USYC as collateral across its investment strategies, enhancing flexibility and security for clients. Singapore, 9 October 2024 – QCP, a leading wealth partner
The rally in Chinese stocks fizzled following their week-long holiday as a government briefing failed to introduce new economic stimulus. The MSCI APAC equity index
After a shaky start, Uptober seems to be back on track. BTC is as at similar levels to where it started last Monday. The Uptober
The new quarter kickstarted with some volatility in risk assets due to the escalation of the Israeli-Iranian conflict. Given the timing (one-year anniversary since the
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