Market Insights
Article by Elisha
With the 4th July break over, we now begin the traditional second half of the trading year. This year’s holiday also fell on the “Super” full buck moon, the first Supermoon of the year, and first of four between now and end-Sep.
In this Supermoon period, we see a shift in markets as well – the red lines indicate the periods of Supermoons in the past 3 years.
There’s is a clear counter-trend reversal in each of the years during that period, which coincided with the exact week of the Supermoon arrival and departures.
2020: Week of 9 Mar – 7 May (161% Rally during Bear market)
2021: Week of 27 Apr – 24 Jun (51% Sell-off during Bull Market)
2022: Week of 14 Jun – 12 Aug (43% Rally during Bear market)
Fundamentally we think most of the good news has been priced into BTC, with no response expected from the SEC this quarter, at least nothing in the affirmative.
The Fed looks locked into another hike this month (although this is already largely priced by markets), and inflation appears likely to stagnate around 3-4% until year-end with the positive base effects from the oil price decline ending this quarter and high frequency rent prices turning back up. We believe the target is close to 2%, but for the Fed on 2% blinkers, still no cigar.
To play this, we like selling end-Sep 33k and 35k calls, perhaps even using the premiums to fund long zero-cost 30k and 28.5k puts (31k spot ref).
The top-side levels work well as any rally from here would be the ending 5th wave, banging up against the wedge resistance, as the MACD also hits its 3 year triangle resistance.
Structurally however, we prefer to be long against the 24-26k level, and longer-term accumulators could look to systematically sell puts at these levels on any dip under 30k.
Yesterday’s Fed meeting minutes revealed a less dovish tone, bringing the Fed’s implied victory over inflation under question. Combined with last Friday’s strong payroll data,
Chinese stocks continue to move lower today after yesterday’s disappointing press conference from state planners. The China A50 Index is down another 7% today and
QCP adopts USYC as collateral across its investment strategies, enhancing flexibility and security for clients. Singapore, 9 October 2024 – QCP, a leading wealth partner
The rally in Chinese stocks fizzled following their week-long holiday as a government briefing failed to introduce new economic stimulus. The MSCI APAC equity index
After a shaky start, Uptober seems to be back on track. BTC is as at similar levels to where it started last Monday. The Uptober
The new quarter kickstarted with some volatility in risk assets due to the escalation of the Israeli-Iranian conflict. Given the timing (one-year anniversary since the
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