Market Insights
Article by Elisha
We are now just over three months away from 2024, and into the final three weeks of Q3.
This quarter, the quarter-end expiry on 29 Sep falls on virtually the last trading day of the month.
Regular readers will know we have been trading this quarter to two blueprints: our supermoon cycle and our Elliot Wave count.
Based on both blueprints, we expect an imminent final decline to close out the quarter at the lows (Chart below).
Chart 1
The crypto and macro events calendar also lines up with this view, with a concentration of upcoming bearish events that only turn neutral from mid-October onwards.
This includes a likely higher-than-expected CPI tomorrow and a more-hawkish-than-expected FOMC next week, plus FTX token asset sales, and Mt. Gox over the next month to cap things off.
Hence while our theory implies a bottom soon after the supermoon early next month, we think the true bottom will come in mid-late October when the bad news cycle has run its course.
We nonetheless remain bullish following that, into year-end and Q1 next year.
Look out next month for our next edition of Just Crypto #7: Schrödinger’s Coin, where we look back and break down the evolution of Bitcoin’s role in markets since its Genesis, as we countdown to the Genesis block’s 15th year anniversary on 3 Jan 2024.
Yesterday’s Fed meeting minutes revealed a less dovish tone, bringing the Fed’s implied victory over inflation under question. Combined with last Friday’s strong payroll data,
Chinese stocks continue to move lower today after yesterday’s disappointing press conference from state planners. The China A50 Index is down another 7% today and
QCP adopts USYC as collateral across its investment strategies, enhancing flexibility and security for clients. Singapore, 9 October 2024 – QCP, a leading wealth partner
The rally in Chinese stocks fizzled following their week-long holiday as a government briefing failed to introduce new economic stimulus. The MSCI APAC equity index
After a shaky start, Uptober seems to be back on track. BTC is as at similar levels to where it started last Monday. The Uptober
The new quarter kickstarted with some volatility in risk assets due to the escalation of the Israeli-Iranian conflict. Given the timing (one-year anniversary since the
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