Market Insights
Article by Elisha
The failed assassination attempt on Donald Trump at the beginning of the weekend triggered a rally in crypto prices. The strong upside momentum continued into the Monday Asia session, driven by aggressive programmatic buying of BTC on Coinbase from 5am to 1pm SGT (a highly unusual flow for Sunday evening in the US).
This whole move seems to be caused by the market pricing in a Trump win at the coming election (similar to Reagan after a failed assassination attempt in 1981) and this is positive for crypto prices because of his overtly pro-crypto stance.
We think that the market was already positioned for a rally with the German government having exhausted their supply and also with large hedge funds aggressively buying calls last week. Trump was the perfect trigger for a market raring to go long.
The question is whether this bullishness carries on. Will the US open see a big short squeeze? We’ve started to see some institutional players hedging the downside on the rally by buying near-dated puts. Perhaps the US will fade the move instead.
We maintain our medium term bullish view given the continued large demand from BTC spot ETF inflows and also the imminent ETH spot ETF launch as a catalyst.
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